Britain’s economy could fall behind Poland’s by the end of the decade, the Labor Party will say today.
Party leader Sir Keir Starmer will use the forecast – which is based on World Bank data – to appeal for voter support at the next general election.
Labour’s calculations are based on the assumption that UK gross domestic product (GDP) per head continues to grow by an average of 0.5% a year in real terms, as it did between 2010 and 2021.
The figures show GDP per head in 2021 was $44,979 in Britain and $34,915 in Poland, and Labor will say Poland – if it maintains its average annual growth of 3.6% – will overtake Britain by 2030 .
Romania, with 3.8%, and Hungary, with 3%, will overtake Britain by 2040, the party warns.
According to a preview of his speech, Sir Keir will say: “We need to be honest about the path of decline the Tories have set our country on.
“The British people are being left behind while our European neighbors are getting richer, to the east as well as in countries like France and Germany.
“I’m not comfortable with that; I’m not comfortable with a trajectory that will soon see Britain overtaken by Poland.
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“Nor am I prepared to accept what the consequences of this failure will mean.”
He will add: “I don’t want a Britain where young people in our big towns and cities have no choice but to leave.
“A brain drain, not just in London or Edinburgh, but in Lyon, Munich and Warsaw. This is not the future our country deserves.”
During his speech in central London, Sir Keir will also talk more about his party’s “five missions”.
As well as commitments on energy, the NHS, crime and childcare, he has promised to deliver the highest sustainable growth in the G7, saying this would bring better pay growth, more savings, better jobs and liveable roads.
Following the speech, Sir Keir and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves will host a roundtable with business leaders.
Conservative Party chairman Greg Hants responded by saying: “The last time Labor left power, there was no money left, debt was rising and unemployment was soaring – something the British people will never forget.
“Everyone already knows what Labor would do to the economy – £90bn of unfunded spending, which would just lead to endless borrowing and higher debt.”