Matias Vs. Ponce preview and prediction

With Alex Fesl: This Saturday from The Armory in Minneapolis, MN, Subriel Matias 18-1 (18 KOs), will face undefeated Jeremias Ponce 30-0 (20 KOs), for the vacant IBF super lightweight title. This bout will be Ponce’s US debut against Matias, who has been on multiple Premier Boxing Champions and Top Rank cards. Most of Ponce’s races have been in Argentina, with several races in Germany, Italy and England, respectively.

This match looks to be a fun and explosive affair. Both fighters are aggressive and don’t shy away from action. Oddsmakers have Matias as the heavy favorite, but unbeaten Ponce is not out of the question.

Keys to Victory

Matias: In previous fights, Matthias has shown slightly reckless in his approach. He would come forward without a jab, then dig to the body and look for powerful hooks and uppercuts upstairs. In Matias’ last fight against Ananyan, Matias showed impressive improvements in his offense and defense to avenge his only loss. Matias clearly had a much tighter defense and looked much more controlled inside with his punch selection.

In this matchup, look for Matias to continue his development. Expect Matias to come forward with consistent pressure and a good jab to close the distance. Once inside, look for Matias to work Ponce’s body and throw combos upstairs. Ponce won’t be hard to find as he also comes forward and doesn’t box on the outside.

Pimp: At 5′ 11″, Ponce is tall enough for an ultra lightweight, however Ponce is not known to use his height and has no advantage. Ponce has shown good jabs in previous fights, but they weren’t jabs that utilized his range. Moreso, Ponce’s jab was to create openings inside. Expect more of that impressive jab from Ponce in this fight.

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Additionally, expect Ponce to come forward and try to outplay Matias on the inside. In Matias’ lone loss against Ananyan, Matias was exhausted on the inside and Ananyan had a lot of success getting in between Matias’ combinations. Look for Ponce to have a heavy performance in this matchup to take advantage of lulls in action. Also, look for Ponce to create separation on the inside and throw a right hand. In Ponce’s battle with Lewis Ritson, this right hand cut gave Ponce the lead on the inside.

What time is Matias vs Ponce?

  • Date: Saturday, February 25
  • Main Card: 9 p.m. ET / 2 a.m. GMT
  • Main event sidewalks (approx): 11 p.m. ET / 4 a.m. GMT
  • US viewers can watch the fight on Showtime
  • The fight will take place at The Armory in Minneapolis.
  • The main card is scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET / 2 a.m. GMT with the main event tracks scheduled for 11 p.m. ET / 4 a.m. GMT.


This fight should be a fun fight while it lasts. Both fighters have a fan friendly style and throw a lot of power punches. I expect the underdog, Ponce, to have his moments and get some good shots in the mix. However, I think Matias will outplay Ponce in this case, as Matias should have a noticeable power advantage.

My final prediction: Matias with a late stoppage.

Note: This card also has a very impressive undercard with former WBA welterweight champion Jamal James in action, as well as contenders Kudratillo Abdukakhorov and Elvis Rodriguez, respectively.

Matias vs. Ponce match card

  • Subriel Matias vs. Jeremias Ponce? For the vacant IBF world super lightweight title
  • Jamal James vs. Alberto Palmetta? Welterweights
  • Elvis Rodriguez vs. Joseph Adorno? junior middleweights
  • Kudratillo Abdukakhorov vs Ve Shawn Owens? Welterweights
  • Jonathan Lopez Marcano vs. Eduardo de Oliveira Guedes Diogo? Bandambaras
  • Derrick Jackson vs. Willie Jones. Welterweights
  • Kel Spencer vs. Margarito Hernandez? Welterweights
  • Breeon Carothers vs. Kevin Schmidt? Lightweight

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