Overwatch 2 game director Aaron Keller has been doing something pretty neat lately: talking about Overwatch 2. Blizzard’s de facto voice on Overwatch issues has recently made it a point to communicate with players more often about the current state of play. of the game and the man is on a roll. So far in his “Director’s Take” series, Keller has written about the woes of ranking (opens in new tab)the future of Arcade mode and the failed experiment that is map groups (opens in new tab).
It’s refreshing to see so much transparency from top Overwatch players on issues that matter most to everyday players and today’s blog is about win rates and hero popularity (opens in new tab) it is easily his most enlightening.
Right out of the gate, Keller shares some interesting observations about Overwatch 2’s ranked meta in the early weeks of Season 3. For example, “most supports are viable at almost every skill level,” which didn’t seem very true in season 1. It also confirms a development that players have noticed by looking at semi-reliable stat aggregator sites like Overbuff (opens in new tab): Brigitte is having a moment right now.
“Brigitte has really come on this season and has the highest win rate for almost all skill levels except Top 500, where Zen takes the lead, with both averaging almost a 55% win rate,” he said Keller. “At the other end of the spectrum is Kiriko and Moira at about 45%.”
While you’d think those playing a competitive shooter, particularly its most competitive mode, would gravitate towards the heroes with the highest win rates, Keller says that’s not the case (names in bold by me):
“When we look at who’s actually playing, the top props are Per, Preacherand Mercy for almost all skill levels up to Silver and Bronze, where Moira becomes quite the pick.
“This shows that the heroes with the highest win rates are not always the most played heroes.”
This shows that the heroes with the highest win rates are not always the most played heroes.
Aaron Keller
I find it fascinating. We know that in a competitive environment like ranked Overwatch, it can seem like sticking to the consensus meta of the month is all that matters. We also know that anecdotally it can feel like teammates are picking heroes based on their preferences, not necessarily what’s best for the team composition, so it’s interesting to see the official numbers back this up. Keller notes that it’s “counterintuitive” that Kiriko is so popular despite winning less often and, on the other hand, Briggite consistently wins with a much lower presence.
There are many possible conclusions from this. I tend to think this suggests that, even at high levels of play, Overwatch players don’t like feeling locked into a small pool of “better” hero choices. People like to play their favorite heroes, and in reality, they are unlikely to trade (opens in new tab) to a hero they don’t like.
As Keller mentions, differences in win/pick rates could be related to other factors not directly compared here, such as overall team composition or map differences. Either way, Keller says the team “tends to believe that high-skilled players continue to pick certain heroes for good reasons,” and is gathering additional metrics to study this. “If it’s fruitful, expect to hear more about it.”
In any case, I think the numbers show that there is a significant portion of the Overwatch 2 community (probably a majority, even) for whom the meta is not important. And if most players don’t care about the meta, how much should Blizzard care?
Maybe it’s about keeping things balanced enough that the “best” heroes are only the best by a few percentage points. We certainly heard it when supporters weren’t getting enough love (opens in new tab) and Sojourn let everyone forget. It’s safe to say that players care about each hero being sustainable so that their favorites never have to go out of fashion, and based on this data, that might be enough.